Great idea to ask yourself the question “wanna bet?”,
It immediately makes you take an outside view and start looking for alternate information.
Links to Ray Dalio’s advice on decision making in his book Principles about acknowledging the probability of a decision. That most decisions are a bet of sorts. That you need to get as much information as you can to improve the odds of a good decision.
Also reminds me of a comment I heard during the last US election where a statistician pointed out that if one candidate had a 90% chance of winning, that meant there was still a 10% chance they would not win.